Esty Dwek, Head of Global Market Strategy bei Natixis
Investment Managers, sieht in der globalen Wirtschaft wieder zarte Pflänzchen
des Wachstums und hält daran fest, dass eine Rezession nicht unmittelbar
bevorsteht. In ihrem aktuellen „Capital Market Pulse“ schreibt die Chefstrategin
der Beratungsgruppe „Dynamic Solutions“ des globalen Investmenthauses: „Wir
gehen davon aus, dass sich in den kommenden Quartalen eine Stabilisierung des
Wachstums einstellen wird, angeführt von den USA und China, wo die Daten
bereits auf Verbesserungen hinweisen. Das verarbeitende Gewerbe bleibt weltweit
schwach, aber Dienstleistungen, Arbeitsmärkte und die Verbraucher halten stand,
und gezielte Konjunkturmaßnahmen in China sowie die Unterstützung durch die Fed
in den USA führen zu verbesserten Aussichten.
Nach einem sehr friedlichen Fed-Meeting rechnen die Märkte
sogar damit, dass der nächste Schritt eine Zinssenkung sein wird, und dass er
noch in diesem Jahr kommen wird. Daran glauben wir nicht. Mit einer
Stabilisierung des Wachstums, einer Inflation, die sich angesichts höherer
Energiepreise und eines starken Arbeitsmarktes voraussichtlich nach oben
bewegen wird, erscheint es uns verfrüht, eine Zinssenkung zu erwarten. Dennoch
glauben auch wir, dass die großen Zentralbanken während des gesamten Jahres
2019 die Zinsen nicht erhöhen werden.“
Vor diesem Hintergrund würde sich die Erholung der
Aktienmärkte fortsetzen, wenn auch langsamer als zu Beginn des Jahres. Dennoch
seien kurzfristige Korrekturen wahrscheinlich, ebenso wie eine höhere Volatilität,
da viele Risiken nach wie vor existent seien –etwa das schwache Wachstum in
Europa, der Brexit oder die nächste Schuldenobergrenze in den USA. „Eine
anhaltende Rallye braucht die fundamentale Unterstützung durch ordentliches
Wachstum der Unternehmensgewinne“, so Dwek. Zunächst jedoch seien die
Kapitalzuflüsse noch verhalten gewesen, so dass nach der verpassten Rallye noch
immer viel Cash am Rande des Spielfelds stehe, was dazu beitragen sollte, die
Korrekturen relativ flach und kurzlebig zu halten.
Den vollständige „Capital Market Pulse“ von Natixis´„Dynamic
Solutions“-Gruppe im englischen Original:
Capital
Market Pulse
- We are
starting to see green shots in the global economy
- The
equity market rally continues, but at a milder pace, supported by improved
growth expectations and dovish central banks
- We
look to diversifying and de-correlating strategies, such as alternatives, to
complement traditional asset classes
Macroeconomic
overview
- While
data remains mixed, we are starting to see some green shoots in the global
economy and we continue to believe we are nowhere near a recession. We expect a
stabilization in growth to materialize in the coming quarters, led by a stabilization
in the US and China, were data is already pointing to improvements.
Manufacturing remains weak globally, but services, labor markets and consumers
are holding up, and targeted stimulus measures in China as well as easier
financial conditions in the US thanks to a dovish Fed are translating into an
improved outlook. Europe is still looking weak, but again services remain
solid, and manufacturing may be turning a corner amid better global sentiment.
- The
finalization of the US / China trade deal remains on track, although
enforcement seems to be a lingering concern. We expect a deal to be reached in
the coming months and are not surprised by the delay as trade deals take time
and the market rally has removed urgency. As and when that gets done, Trump could
turn his focus to Europe and the automobile sector, as he might want another
‘bad guy’ as we move closer to the US elections. However, the US and Europe are
expected to start negotiating a trade deal shortly, which could help at least
delay tariffs for now, which would be a welcome and much-needed reprieve for
Europe.
- The
Brexit saga is unlikely to abandon headlines as the UK has secured an extension
to the end of October, and that doesn’t seem to be a hard deadline either.
However, a less official deadline is the upcoming European elections, which the
UK will need to participate in if they do not come to an agreement before May
22nd. There is still a small chance May manages to get her deal through with
Labour support to avoid European elections. Otherwise the most likely outcome
is probably a very long delay or virtually no Brexit at all.
- After
a very dovish Fed meeting, markets believe the next move will be a rate cut,
and that it will come this year, but we don’t think that will happen. With a stabilization
in growth, inflation likely to move up amid higher energy prices and a strong
labor market, expecting a cut seems premature. Nonetheless, while some rate
pressure in markets is possible in a stronger second half of the year, we
expect major central banks to be on hold throughout 2019. The ECB didn’t make
any announcements at its latest meeting, but March had been heavy enough
already.
- Oil
prices continue to rally as the US announced it wasn’t going to extend the Iran
waivers beyond May. Coupled with concerns about Venezuela and Libya output,
this should continue to support prices in the near term. However, OPEC +
(including Russia) could increase production in June, and softer global growth
likely means weaker demand, which should cap prices over the medium term.
Market
outlook
- The
equity market rally continues, although at a slower pace than earlier in the
year, which was to be expected. Markets have come around to a more optimistic
growth outlook, supported by dovish central banks and improvements in US/China
trade. Nonetheless, short term corrections are likely, as is higher volatility
even as markets grind higher in the coming months, because plenty of risks
remain (European growth, Brexit, US debt ceiling). We also believe that fundamental
support from decent earnings growth will be necessary to support an ongoing
rally. For now though, inflows have been timid, so plenty of cash remains on
the sidelines having missed the rally, which should help keep corrections
relatively shallow and short-lived.
- Treasury yields have stabilized back around 2.55% following the temporary yield
curve inversion. While an inversion is an ominous sign, not all yield curve
inversions have led to recessions, and usually lag time is 12-18 months. In
addition, the inversion was very short lived, so while it is something to
watch, we are not worried about the signal for now. We continue to expect broad
range-trading, although some upward pressure on yields could come if growth
improves and inflation steadily increases amid higher energy prices. Even
though duration doesn’t add much in terms of yield, we are less worried about
gradually adding duration to portfolios with more core, defensive strategies as
move later in the cycle.
- Credit
spreads continue to tighten, as demand for yield persists amid lower global
yields following the latest retracement. On US IG, we do not expect yields to
tighten back to 2018 lows, but HY has further tightening potential given a
rebound in oil prices and a gradually improving growth outlook. We continue to
look for flexible, absolute return strategies that can adapt to evolving market
conditions.
- The
complex investment environment we are navigating is unlikely to abate, implying
that absolute return, more flexible strategies that can diversify portfolios
continue to be welcome additions. Indeed, as return expectations for
traditional asset classes are sub-par, alternatives continue to have their
place to help fill gaps. We expect risk assets to continue to grind higher, and
maintain our exposure. It might not be time to add too much risk, but we don’t
think it’s time to take it all off either.
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