Robeco: Chinesische Demokratie? Chinesische Volatilität

Signs that China’s economic slowdown is deepening have sent the Shanghai Composite Index to its biggest one-day percentage loss in eight years. The index closed down 8.5% on Monday (24August). The decline was partly a reaction to the publication of the preliminary Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). This leading indicator declined from 47.8 in July to 47.1 in August, the lowest level since March 2009. “The shift from an export- and investment-driven economy to a model which is driven by local consumption is a bumpy ride,” says Daalder. “The disappointing PMI report is the newest piece of a growing pile of evidence that the cracks in the Chinese economy are bigger than most investors anticipated. The stock market was already shaken by the sudden depreciation of the renminbi two weeks ago and this is a new shock.” In a reaction to the falling markets, China has allowed pension funds managed by local governments to invest up to 30% of their net assets in stocks and equity funds. Chinese state media has calculated that this will theoretically allow USD 97 billion to flow into the stock market. “Local governments tend to react quite quickly to this kind of change in legislation”, says Daalder. “We expect China to take additional steps if they are needed for equity markets to calm down. Even a new deprecation of the renminbi cannot be ruled out.”

A difficult choice

Daalder says the Chinese government faces a difficult choice if its current actions fail to create a more stable market climate. “Additional interventions might provide some stability, but that would mark a step back in the shift to a more market driven model,” he says. “It is also a dangerous precedent, for investors have a tendency to get addicted to government support for financial markets quite quickly. On the other hand, without intervention the current panic might lead to a decline of 20%.” According to Daalder, the base scenario is that the decline in Chinese equity markets is a sign of increasing market volatility rather than the start of a large correction: “Global equity markets have had a steady run-up during the last couple of years, which was not always supported by an improving economy. We have already warned investors that they should prepare themselves for larger price movements and growing uncertainty.” 

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