Schroders: Gute Entwicklung in Europa und Schwellenländern

US

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity and hopes of a further delay in the first rise in interest rates helped US equities record a modest gain over the quarter. These factors were counterbalanced by fears about the impact of the strong dollar on corporate earnings and fragile business sentiment.The healthcare sector was the standout performer as Salix Pharmaceuticals received a counter offer from Irish-headquartered peer Endo Pharmaceuticals, trumping a bid from Canada’s Valeant Pharmaceuticals. M&A activity was wide ranging with ketchup maker H. J. Heinz announcing a tie up with Kraft Foods and Charter Communications making a bid for rival cable operator Bright House.

The full-year reporting season underlined fears about the corporate sector. PC giant Microsoft, chemicals business DuPont, industrial conglomerate United Technologies, consumer goods leader Procter & Gamble and Caterpillar, a major supplier of equipment to the resources sector, all announced disappointing results. The first four variously cited global growth headwinds and the strong dollar, while Caterpillar specifically pointed to the oncoming cut in energy sector capital expenditure plans resulting from the oil price collapse.

Worries about the strong dollar were responsible for an end-of-quarter sell-off in anticipation of a disappointing first-quarter reporting season. Weak core non-durable goods orders gave fuel to the bears. Meanwhile, the bulls latched on to strong monthly non-farm payrolls, which included signs of a pick-up in wage growth. The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index rose to 101.3 in March, almost back to January’s seven-and-a-half-year high.

Markets benefited from comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen at her press conference which followed the two-day sitting of the Federal Open Market Committee in March. While the rate-setting body freed its hand to tighten monetary policy by dropping a pledge to be ‘patient’ in lifting rates, markets saw her comments as dovish and thought the likelihood of a June rise had receded.

Eurozone

Eurozone equities delivered strong gains over the first quarter, buoyed by the ECB’s long-awaited announcement of full quantitative easing (QE). The package surpassed the market’s expectations, with a total of €60 billion of bond purchases a month until at least September 2016. The news sent the euro lower versus the dollar, suppressed bond yields, and supported equity market gains.

The ECB’s QE announcement came in response to below-target inflation figures. Annual inflation was -0.6% in January though this improved to -0.3% in February and again to -0.1% in March. The falling oil price contributed to the weak inflation number but should relieve some pressure on consumers. Economic growth showed a modest improvement at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter for the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to 0.2% for the third quarter. Leading indicators were more robust with the flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reaching 54.1 in March.

The continued weakening of the euro saw the Swiss National Bank abandon the franc’s peg to the single currency, in a move that sparked volatility on the Swiss stockmarket. Sweden’s Riksbank cut its benchmark interest rate to -0.25%. Another focus was the election in Greece, with anti-austerity party Syriza leading the new government. This led to a renewal of ‘Grexit’ concerns but there was limited impact on the wider eurozone.

The fourth quarter earnings season was generally encouraging for eurozone corporates, with many exporters starting to reap the benefits of a weaker euro. Top performers over the quarter were economically-sensitive sectors such as consumer discretionary, with auto and auto parts firms enjoying particular strength. The utilities sector was the main laggard but still posted a positive absolute return. By country, Germany and Italy were the strongest major eurozone markets over the quarter.

Der vollständige Rückblick im pdf-Dokument