Columbia Threadneedle: Positives for Europe, but the Middle East could be a headache
Inflation is a stubborn problem in the US due to labour shortages, but this is much less of a factor in Europe where activity is dull but likely to recover as the consumer is well supported.17.05.2024 | 09:36 Uhr
Growth expectations have improved since Chair of the US Federal
Reserve, Jerome Powell, turned dovish in December, causing financial
conditions to ease. But inflation is now expected to be higher:
corporate margins are under pressure, so prices are rising, while wage
growth remains stubbornly high. The inflation swap rate has returned to its high of October 2023.
The last time it was this high, the S&P 500 was at 4200; it now
stands at 5200. There is a disconnect between the market and Fed
funds futures. The effects of US monetary policy are taking longer to
have an impact due to long-term fixed mortgages and corporate debt and
fiscal largesse. But high interest rates will eventually be felt.
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