Morgan Stanley IM: Brace for Impact! Soft Landing to Collide with Hard Data
Jim Caron, Co-Lead Global Portfolio Manager and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Global Balanced Risk Control Team, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.11.04.2023 | 06:34 Uhr
- The consensus perspective is that the worst is yet to come and the lags from global policy tightening have yet to bite.
- That consensus view also foots to a mild recession or a "soft landing," because while we may see a weakening of economic data, it is still coming from a position of strength.
- In addition the savings rate is still solid and real incomes strong to the point where consumption may hold steady and support GDP - all soft landing sympathies.
- In this case the fact that the data is simply weakening may matter MORE in the near term than the level to which it actually falls.
- But the upcoming run of hard data – data that is directly tied to jobs, retail sales, units of production etc. - is expected to show material signs of weakening.
- As a result, hard data may be on collision course with a soft landing over the coming quarters.