Robeco: Griechen-Referendum sollte Investoren nicht beunruhigen

Greeks voted 61.3% against accepting bailout terms by creditors in Sunday’s vote called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who said his people had made a "brave choice". The country had defaulted on a EUR 1.5 billion that was due to be repaid on June 30 to the International Monetary Fund.

The country faces a bigger hurdle on July 20 when a EUR 3.4 billion payment is due to the European Central Bank (ECB), which may now cut off emergency funding. Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis resigned, saying his continued presence would not be welcomed by creditors. Robeco’s Asset Allocation team now rates the chance of Greece leaving the Eurozone in the so-called ‘Grexit’ at 70%.

Grexit risk has risen

“There is a saying that when hubris arrives, nemesis is never far behind,” says Léon Cornelissen. “The convincing ‘No’ was a bit of a surprise, and it will strengthen the hand of Tsipras immensely, but it now raises the likelihood of a de facto Grexit.”

“Of course, European leaders won’t cut off Greece because of its broader geopolitical implications: a resentful Greece can still stir up a lot of trouble and a loose cannon on the European deck makes decision-making very difficult.”

“But the vote won’t change the position of the creditors, so it is Greece which must turn. And that’s unlikely given the strength of the ‘No’ vote. Still, a last-minute deal still cannot be completely ruled out because we are very close to the introduction of a parallel currency.”

Greek banks, which have relied on ECB funding via its Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program, are remaining shut until further notice. “The reopening of banks would necessitate a severe haircut on deposits, or the introduction of the parallel currency. There are no Russian oligarchs around to finance their recapitalization,” says Cornelissen. “So the situation is pretty desperate for Greeks.”

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