The latest issue of the Asset Allocation Monthly from BNP Paribas Asset Management’s Multi Asset, Quantitative & Solutions (‘MAQS’) investment group.
03.02.2020 | 11:28 Uhr
KEY THEMES & MACRO ENVIRONMENT
· Less fragile goldilocks
o goldilocks conditions are firming up amid recovering economic data, accommodative central banks and stabilising US-China trade
o we see the coronavirus as transient for markets
· Risks remain, but tails are less fat
o we still see the two main risks as a slowdown or a reflationary environment
o the probabilities are now lower
· Short term risk/reward is unattractive
o we don’t want to chase market
o our market dynamic toolbox signals near term vulnerabilities
ASSET ALLOCATION: ASSET VIEWS
· Equities: waiting to buy the dip
o our base case remains supportive but short-term risk/reward is unattractive
o the latest earnings reports will be key
· Goldilocks trades: long emerging market USD debt and EMU REITs
o we continue to like carry assets, supported by the prevailing goldilocks conditions
· Rates: short core EUR and long US breakeven inflation
o we still see fixed income markets as rich and reflation as the big risk
· FX: long USD and long JPY
o we see an asymmetry in the USD outlook stemming from our risk scenarios
o the JPY looks cheap and is a risk-off hedge
· Long gold
o we see gold as supported in the current situation where central bank policy remains loose, but also see it performing in our main risk scenarios
· De-globalisation trades
o we are long CAC/DAX and long USD/CNY as we position ourselves for our strategically bearish view on de-globalisation
ASSET ALLOCATION: PORTFOLIO CORNER
· Risk utilisation
o having taken profits on our equity overweight, the active risk in our portfolios is currently modest, in line with our ‘buy the equity dip’ strategy
· Factor exposures from core views
o given the offsetting factor profiles of some trades and as we are neutral equities, our factor exposures are muted
· Specific/tactical trades
o we have implemented four trades outside of our MFA portfolio optimiser; these help diversify our portfolios
Diesen Beitrag teilen: