Henderson: Trump victory - ramifications for property equities

We believe property equities and broader equity markets had priced in a Clinton victory heading into election day, especially following Monday’s announcement that she has once again been cleared by the FBI. As a result we expect a short-term negative reaction in the stock market given the surprising Trump victory. With the election behind us, we expect businesses to finalise decisions that had been delayed due to political uncertainty and capital markets to refocus on fundamentals, although this may be difficult in the short term given the lack of detail Trump has provided on his policies. . We expected  that the election of either candidate would likely bring incremental, rather than material, changes to property fundamentals and asset values − this remains our position. Despite some likely near-term weakness as a result of the Trump victory, our views continue to be based on an assessment of the broader market forces of supply and demand. There are currently some indications that we are in the later stages of the property cycle, but we think property-level growth will remain relatively healthy in the near term and see many attractive opportunities in our investible universe.

President Trump is likely to propose more business-friendly policies compared to Clinton with regards to taxation and regulation. His background in real estate along with significant interests in real estate investments could be a positive for the sector. However, of concern to us are Trump’s views on international trade and any resultant negative impact on economic growth, especially in trade-sensitive sectors like industrial real estate. Moreover, Trump has stated he would end ‘Obamacare’. While we do not expect this change to markedly affect the demand for healthcare services, the resultant uncertainty could be a negative for healthcare real estate tenants and, by association, the assets themselves. 

Die Wertentwicklung in der Vergangenheit ist kein zuverlässiger Indikator für die künftige Wertentwicklung. Alle Performance-Angaben beinhalten Erträge und Kapitalgewinne bzw. -verluste, aber keine wiederkehrenden Gebühren oder sonstigen Ausgaben des Fond.

Die Informationen in diesem Artikel stellen keine Anlageberatung dar.