NN IP: Against all odds

Economic Outlook: Markets are lacking solid anchors

Since mid-2014, tectonic shifts in exchange rates and commodity prices caused substantial real economy volatility which fed back into markets. It made clear that whenever risk premiums do not have a solid anchor, they become very susceptible to self-fulfilling dynamics. Read more...

Asset Allocation: Against all odds

To have a high conviction on what the odds are that Brexit will occur, that a left-wing coalition will emerge after the upcoming Spanish election or that Trump will win the US Presidential election. None of these outcomes would be against all odds, but they still seem unlikely at this point in time and are certainly not fully priced by markets. Therefore, they still have the potential to substantially impact markets if they did happen after all. Read more...

Fixed Income: Keeping the search for yield alive in Spread products

Despite some expected profit-taking, the search for yield theme may still have some legs favouring Spread products. Some “muddling through” appears likely in the near term. Read more...

Equity Strategy: Doubts about Chinese growth have stopped the rally in emerging market equities, despite improvements in EM growth momentum and flows.

The factors that drove the EM outperformance since 21 January have lost strength in the past weeks. The postponement of Fed rate hikes triggered the rally in January, but so much dovishness has been priced in recent months, that compared to expectations, the Fed now is more likely to move earlier than later. Read more...