NN IP: Racing into the New Year
Over the past few months it has become clear that the era of dovish DM central bank surprises is now largely behind us. Over the past few years these dovish surprises have been important in calming markets in the face of negative shocks. But now it seems that the risks to the Fed outlook are shifting in a hawkish direction.
22.12.2016 | 13:58 Uhr
Asset Allocation: Racing into the New Year
2016 has taught us to always be humble on what we know about tomorrow. Many unexpected things happened, both good and (very) bad. This does not mean that we cannot prepare for tomorrow or exploit the opportunities that tomorrow’s unexpected moves might create. Read more...
Economic Outlook: The Fed takes another step
Markets were surprised by the change in the Federal Reserve’s dot plot indicating three rate hikes in 2017 instead of two. We think this marginally more hawkish signal should not be overemphasized. We hold on to two hikes in 2017 with the risk tilted towards three hikes. In 2018 we expect four hikes. Read more...
Equity Strategy: Pronounced EM underperformance
Tighter financial conditions and growth in emerging economies concerns explain why emerging market equities continue to underperform. Strong commodity prices and good Chinese growth data have prevented bigger EM problems. Read more...
Fixed Income: Reflation trade continuess
Amid the continuing reflation trade, we prefer high yield over investment grade and developed markets over emerging markets. Read more...
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