NN IP: The Long Mini Cycle
There is a clear asymmetry in the effectiveness of ECB policy. If too little policy action is taken and the region slides into deflation it will be pretty difficult to get out again. If, on the other hand, the ECB overstimulates, the region will see inflation returning to target sooner than expected, which can hardly be labelled as a bad thing given the aforementioned lowflation risks.
17.03.2016 | 14:12 Uhr
Economic Outlook: ECB affirms “whatever it takes” message
Despite the fact that the Eurozone economy is going through a bit of a soft patch due to the global financial turmoil seen at the start of the year, as well as a recent weak spot in DM consumer demand, the region remains set for moderately above trend-growth later this year. Read more...
Asset Allocation: Market calms down, growth persists
Markets have finally realized that the likelihood of another system crisis or genuine contraction in global activity this year is actually much smaller than market pricing for most of the first two months of the year would imply. Read more...
Fixed Income: ECB action gives a boost to Euro credits
Sentiment and performance of spread products has improved dramatically since mid-February. Better US macroeconomic data, a rebound in the oil price and the latest policy measures of the ECB all contributed to an improved environment for spread products. Read more...
Equity Strategy: EM equity outperformance continues
Emerging market (EM) equities continue to perform well, thanks to a rebound in oil and commodity prices and excitement about a recovery of the Chinese housing market. We do not see an improvement in overall EM growth, however, and medium- to longer-term risks have certainly not disappeared. Read more...
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