NN IP: The Turning Tide

Economic Outlook: Defending Draghi

Certain politicians and media have heavily criticized the ECB’s unconventional measures, even up to the point where they are deemed as dangerous for various reasons. We do not agree with this criticism. We believe that the Eurozone would be in a much worse shape than it is today if it had not been for the ECB. Read more... 

Asset Allocation: The turning tide

Investor behaviour has probably been much more important recently than a rational market repricing due to an improvement in the economic data flow. It helps us to understand that there is more than fundamentals alone that drives markets. Read more...

Fixed Income: How could Brexit impact UK Gilts?

In our view, Brexit would lead to falling UK 10-year Gilt yields. Weaker growth expectations would be likely to result in easier monetary policy, which would create a supportive environment for Gilts. A case can also be made for rising yields, however, if  foreign investors substantially reduce their Gilt allocations. Read more...

Equity Strategy: In absence of a new driver, the market is drifting down

The equity market has drifted lower in the past few days, with no real identifiable driver apart from the IMF’s warning of risks of further economic downside. These fears are not confirmed by the latest macro data out of the US and the Eurozone, or even China. In our view, the market is in an intermediate phase. Read more...