NNIP: Drei Kräfte beherrschen die Finanzwelt

Economic Outlook
A perspective on global liquidity
It is clear that the financial system has become more vulnerable than it was during the period ranging from the end of WWII and the mid 1980’s. While a host of factors lies behind all this, we can categorise them in three broad groups.  Read more


Asset Allocation
Investors might leave their defensive positions
Markets reacted positively to the disappointing US jobs report as it could increase the probability of a further delay in Fed rate hikes. We did however also see an improvement in our global cyclical indicator and defensively positioned investors might got tempted to increase the risk tilt in their portfolios. Read more


Fixed Income
EM growth momentum has turned less negative
Economic growth in the emerging world, which has more than halved in the past five years, continues to correct. For 2016, we forecast an average GDP growth rate of below 4%, the lowest level since 2001. But the pace of the slowdown has clearly decreased in the past few weeks. Read more


Equity Strategy 
Keep an eye on US corporate balance sheets
The equity market was in a somewhat better mood over the past few days. This may look strange as the turnaround came after the publication of a weak payroll number in the US last Friday. But remember, just three weeks ago, the market sold off because the Fed did not increase interest rates, given the deteriorating international environment and weak inflation outlook. Read more