Robeco: Steigende Erwartungen an "QE 2"

Main market events

Peripheral bonds rallied along with German bonds last week, as expectations about ‘QE2’continue to rise. Especially Portuguese bonds performed strongly, as for now political uncertaintyin Portugal has diminished. Italian bonds have returned 5.7% this year, Portuguese bonds 4.6%,Irish bonds 2.3% and Spanish bonds 2.8%.

ECB

The ECB will suspend the purchase program from 22 December to 1 January due to expected lowmarket liquidity. ECB purchases will be front-loaded in the first three weeks of December.

Portugal

The Portuguese President has sworn in socialist leader Antonio Costa as new Prime Minister.Costa said he will give priority to economic growth and job creation by turning the page onausterity, but also pledged to remain compliant with EU budget rules.

Greece

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) approved a EUR 2bln bailout disbursement after theGreek government’s completion of the first set of reforms. Separately, the ESM approved up toEUR 10bln to cover bank recapitalization costs.

Spain

Spanish third quarter GDP was confirmed at 0.8, mainly due to a significant pick-up in domesticdemand. Year on year, real GDP rose by 3.4%, one of the highest growth numbers in Europe.

Italy

The Italian government stepped up its privatization efforts by initiating the process of selling a40% stake, worth around EUR 4bln, in the state-owned railway company.

Robeco Euro Government Bonds

We continue to see the ECB’s QE program, the generally supportive stance of EU policy makerstowards the periphery and the improvement in growth as positives for peripheral debt. But to alarge extend these positives are already reflected in current valuations. We therefore prefer tofocus on relative differences between countries in the periphery.

Currently the fund has overweight positions in Portugal and Ireland versus underweight positionsin Spanish and Italian bonds. Portugal benefits disproportionately from QE and strong economicgrowth is rapidly improving the Irish debt metrics. Peripheral bonds make up 28% of the fund.Year-to-date the fund’s absolute return is 2.49%.

Der vollständige Beitrag als pdf-Dokument