UBS: Unfinished business - The first 100 days of the Trump presidency

Although the US president has signed 29 bills into law – the fastest pace since Harry Truman – two thirds of the bills have dealt with mundane matters unlikely to engender partisan opposition. The remainder repealed rules promulgated under former President Barack Obama. He did succeed in his effort to put Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court though. But he has enjoyed limited success on several of his oft-noted priorities:

Global engagement. Although geopolitics has been anything but quiet, Trump has taken a far more pragmatic approach to trade and immigration than many had feared. Most notably, his administration has not yet branded China a “currency manipulator“ as he threatened to do on the campaign trail.

Regulatory relief. Uniting with congressional efforts, the administration has rolled back dozens of Obama-era rules using the Congressional Review Act and a series of 57 executive orders and memoranda aimed at simplifying and limiting federal regulation. Yet, these successes have been overshadowed by the GOP’s high-profile failure to pass major legislation, especially with regard to health care.

Tax reform. Although not a fatal blow, the American Health Care Act failure threatens positive legislative momentum and delays Republicans’ tax reform efforts. The measures proposed spending and revenue cuts would also build important room for tax negotiations. While tax reform may now appear more limited in scope, we still expect successful legislation that includes repatriation and a headline corporate tax cut to be implemented by early 2018.

Spending initiatives. Trump’s unorthodox approach to governing presents both a risk (too much left unanswered) and an opportunity (room for compromise). His “skinny budget,“ aimed at finding USD 54bn to boost defense, required deep cuts to other departments and programs, foreshadowing some of the difficult compromises that will be required for larger-scale programs such as his hoped-for 10-year, USD 1 trillion infrastructure package. A staple of the president’s campaign trail rhetoric, the framework for that initiative has yet to be devised and has taken a back seat to higher-profile debates over health care and taxes in Congress.

If we were to “grade“ Trump’s first 100 days, it would be an “incomplete.“ There has been little concrete progress on his pro-business priorities, but he still has 1,360 days of his 1,460, or 93% of his term left. As with other presidencies, it will take time for Trump’s legacy to take shape.

In short, the administration still has a lot of “unfinished business.“ But it’s important to keep in mind that it’s not the first 3½ months that matter, but the next 3½ years or so.

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