Robeco: Italien auf gutem Weg

Main market events

Peripheral bonds performed somewhat better than German bonds this week. Spanish bondsoutperformed other peripheral markets as the outcome of the regional elections in Catalonia didnot lead to a majority of votes for the pro-independence camp. Portuguese bonds returned 4.3%this year, Italian bonds 3.3%, Irish bonds 1.2% and Spanish bonds 0.8%.

Spain

Catalan Premier Artur Mas has been indicted for carrying out the self-determination referendumin Catalonia in November 2014.
Spanish pro-independence parties managed to gain a majority in seats, but not in votes at theregional election in Catalonia last Sunday. This weakens their case for independence.

Greece

The EU commission has set the deadline for completing the first review of the third bailoutprogram at 15 November. A positive outcome will lead to the disbursement of funds torecapitalize the banking sector.

Ireland

Ireland’s fiscal position improved further as government revenue is well ahead of target at theend of the third quarter. Revenue rose due to higher than expected corporate taxes and VAT,while government spending decreased due to lower debt servicing costs.

Italy

Employment grew by 1.5% year on year, which is the fastest annual job creation since 2008. Theunemployment rate dropped to 11.9%. Improving real growth together with labor marketreforms like the tax break for hiring permanent employees are supportive of the labor market.

Robeco Euro Government Bonds

We are cautiously optimistic on periphery. We continue to see the ECB’s QE program, thegenerally supportive stance of EU policy makers towards the periphery and the improvement ingrowth as positives for peripheral debt. On the other hand Portuguese elections this Sunday, andSpanish elections in December could cause some volatility.

The fund has an overweight in Portuguese bonds and Spanish bonds versus Italian bonds asPortugal benefits disproportionately from QE and Spain’s recent underperformance due toelection concerns is overdone. The fund maintains its overweight in 10-year Irish bonds.Peripheral bonds make up 34% of the fund. Year-to-date the fund’s absolute performance is1.06%.

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