Robeco: Brave new financial world

Robeco: Brave new financial world
Kapitalmärkte

Our three key trends, aging finance, emerging finance and digital finance, are all primed for growth in 2025 as the financial sector continues an epochal change process driven by technological advances, geopolitics and demographics.

30.01.2025 | 06:00 Uhr

At the start of 2024 only few strategists and market pundits foresaw the strength of equity markets in general, and financials stocks in particular. The MSCI AC World rallied 17.5% in USD in 2024, while the MSCI AC World Financials gained a stunning 24.3%. As always, we note that equity markets continue to be highly correlated with the direction of global liquidity indicators. The course of action in (real) interest rates, credit spreads and global central bank policies will continue to set the tone, especially for financials.

A key issue facing investors at the start of 2025 is the self-evident contradictory nature of incoming US President Trump’s policy agenda and how those contradictions are going to be resolved. At the same time, surging bond yields and inflation expectations will – in our view – enforce fiscal discipline across the globe and moderate the extreme elements of any tariff plan. While we do not exclude the possibility of continuously high US bond yields and USD strength, we think we may be closer to peak than is currently priced-in, and investors need to be careful to avoid managing portfolios by looking through the rear-view mirror. We prefer to focus on the structural growth trends that drive our stocks, as they tend to show far more consistency and longevity than the typically reactive Wall Street consensus.

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