BNP IP: Brexit doesn´t mean an EM-Exit!

• The trade exposure in goods and services of most emerging economies to the UK and the European Union (EU) is relatively small, except for Eastern Europe and to a far lesser extent Turkey and Russia 
• The increased risk to global growth will likely lead to a postponement of policy tightening in the US and to additional monetary easing and fiscal support almost everywhere else in the world 
• Funding costs will not meaningfully tighten from here for EM, and may even recede in some emerging economies 
• As hinted at above, the bias for the growth differential between EM and DM to widen further has strengthened, which argues in favour of EM financial assets • If the global growth and the USD stabilise roughly at current levels, then the risk of a sudden fall in commodities, notably crude oil, looks relatively remote

Die vollständige Analyse von Patrick Mange, Head of APAC & EM Strategy und Clement Niel, Investment Stragist, BNP Paribas IP, finden SIe hier.