Credit Suisse: Globaler Ausblick 2015

After a period of historically low volatility, driven in part by the predictability of Fed policy, the macro world has come to life in recent months. We expect this awakening to continue over 2015, with changes in both relative economic performance and monetary conditions across regions driving major shifts in capital flows and asset pricing.
Of course, such changes are, by their nature, uncertain and rarely orderly. As the cold fronts from some central banks collide with the warm fronts from others, at the very least, we expect more market storms than seen in the past few years.

We expect the divergence in short rates between regions to widen further and the US dollar to continue to rise against most currencies. Credit markets are likely to remain volatile but outperform, while securitized products should benefit from better fundamentals as well as some positive technicals. Higher US rates might prompt footloose capital to leave Emerging Markets, although we think that specific countries are vulnerable, rather than the whole asset class.

For equity markets, 2015 could be a year of two halves: we expect the S&P 500 to rally to 2200 by mid-year, notwithstanding an increase in volatility, but to give up some of the gains in the second half as the Fed comes into play.

Der vollständige Ausblick im pdf-Dokument