So, a Trump victory. Once again over-turning the “accepted wisdom” that “The Establishment” would win. This is a message that politicians are out of touch with the huge groundswell of opinion that the “system” is not working for them. The implications for Europe are widespread.
09.11.2016 | 14:22 Uhr
Positives:
Negatives:
Markets and economies hate uncertainty, and we now have more of that. Can Trump really reflate the US economy? What with? Hot air?
“When the facts change, I change my mind!” It seems prudent to take a more conservative stance for the time being and raise a little more cash. There will also be some stock specific issues to address.
This has not prompted wholesale changes to the portfolio, if anything it reinforces our preference for quality stocks yet further. We are reducing our banks weighting at the margin, as the probability of a December interest rate hike is understandably reduced.
Longer term, we need to consider whether a set of reflationary measures by governments (whether in the US or Europe) changes the inflationary outlook. That in turn has a further knock on impact on the valuation of “growth” versus “value”, and therefore whether we should be adding more economically sensitive stocks or names that are a beneficiary of any attempts at reflation.
Die Wertentwicklung in der Vergangenheit ist kein zuverlässiger Indikator für die künftige Wertentwicklung. Alle Performance-Angaben beinhalten Erträge und Kapitalgewinne bzw. -verluste, aber keine wiederkehrenden Gebühren oder sonstigen Ausgaben des Fond.
Die Informationen in diesem Artikel stellen keine Anlageberatung dar.
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