NN IP: In Richtung Zinswende

Economic Outlook

December rate hike should not come as a big surprise

The latest FOMC statement could hardly have been any clearer as the possibility of hiking at the next meeting was explicitly mentioned. Of course it’s not a certainty, but at the very least, the Fed wanted to put markets on alert so that a December rate hike, if it happens, will not be a big surprise.  Read more

Asset Allocation

More visibility on policy and growth outlook

It is crucially important for risk appetite of investors how much uncertainty they perceive there to be around their base-case outlook. As policy uncertainty seems to have peaked, the outlook for risky assets has brightened.  Read more

Fixed Income

Fiscal deficits have been widening in most emerging markets

With economic growth still under pressure, commodity prices declining more and policy makers not able or willing to reduce or prioritize expenditure, fiscal deficits have been widening in most emerging markets.   Read more

Equity Strategy 

The extreme pessimism that prevailed at the end of September has normalized since the fundamental picture stopped deteriorating

Investors were in a much better mood in October than in the two preceding months. Global equities rose by more than 9% and cyclical sectors comfortably outperformed defensive sectors. The main reason for this turnaround is probably linked to market dynamics and far less to changes in the macro and corporate fundamentals. Read more