NN IP: Polls got Trumped
Although many risky asset markets have gone up since the election of Donald Trump as the new US president, they enter a period of heightened uncertainty.
10.11.2016 | 14:18 Uhr
Asset Allocation
Trump Towers
Emerging markets and related assets are particularly vulnerable, as investors fear protectionist measures that would seriously impact US imports from emerging economies.
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Economic Outlook
The US economy, Trump and the Fed
With Donald Trump as US president, the effect on US and global risk appetite in the short term is not clear cut. Prospects for fiscal stimulus and more degrees of freedom for US corporates have to be weighed against rising global political and policy risks. Even under a pragmatist Trump – which is our base case – we will be in for a period of more uncertainty.
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Equity Strategy
Limited market reaction to election of Trump as US president
Donald Trump has been elected the 45th President of the United States, and the Senate and the House remain in Republican hands. The election will increase market uncertainty, which will keep equity risk premiums high. We upgrade health care to neutral and downgrade emerging markets also to neutral.
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Fixed Income
Improving macro data could see flows return to spread products
Spread products’ sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators has been higher this year than in the past. The improvement in global macro should have supported spread products but appeared to have been overwhelmed by other considerations.
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