Pictet: Lokalwährungen der Schwellenländer werden attraktiv

“Local currency emerging market debt is becoming increasingly attractive”, says Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

“Valuations for both bonds and currencies and a likely continuation of a benign interest rate environment are supporting high-yielding asset classes.

“As emerging growth is slowing, especially in Latin America, the differential between developing and advanced economies has narrowed, although it is still positive in favour of emerging markets.

“More importantly given the sharp fall in energy prices, there seems to be a growing divergence in the financial fortunes of many emerging economies. Manufacturing exporters and energy importers such as Turkey, Korea and India are benefiting from the decline in energy costs, while commodity exporters especially those in Latin America are struggling.

“Manufacturers are also better positioned to benefit from good momentum in the US economy, which is the sole engine of global growth at the moment.

“After losing nearly a fifth of their value in the past three years, emerging market currencies are further away from ‘fair value’ than they have ever been before, suggesting some scope for a rebound in the medium term. This, together with high carry and attractive valuation, makes local debt in developing markets attractive.

Der vollständige Kommentar im pdf-Dokument

Der monatliche Investor-Ausblick "Barometer" im pdf-Dokument