Robeco: EZB bereit einzugreifen

Main market events

Peripheral bonds generally moved in line with German bonds in recent weeks. The large marketturmoil last weeks due to China hardly affected peripheral bonds. Portuguese bonds returned2.8% this year, Italian bonds 1.6%, Irish bonds 0.0% and Spanish bonds -0.6%.

ECB

Ahead of next week’s meeting, ECB chief economist Peter Praet said downside risks to the ECB’sinflation goal have increased due to recent developments in the world economy and incommodity markets. If needed, the ECB is willing and able to act.

ESM

The European Stability Mechanism Board approved the third bailout program for Greece. EUR13bln has been disbursed immediately, EUR 10bln will be available for bank recapitalization andEUR 3bln is available when Greece has completed further reforms.

Spain

Spanish second quarter GDP was confirmed at 1.0%, mainly due to rising domestic demandinstead of exports. This positive environment is likely to help the current government at thenational elections due in the fourth quarter.

Greece

Greek Prime Minister Tsipras ruled out a government formation with main opposition partiesNew Democracy, Pasok and To Potami if the 20 September elections don’t lead to an absolutemajority for Syriza. Coalition forming can become difficult as an absolute majority is unlikely.

Ireland

According to the Irish Treasury Agency debt/GDP is expected to decline to 100% in 2016, which ismore or less in line with expected French levels next year.
Robeco Euro Government Bonds

We are cautiously optimistic on periphery. We continue to see the ECB’s QE program, thegenerally supportive stance of EU policy makers towards the periphery and the improvement ingrowth as positives for peripheral debt. On the other hand upcoming elections in Greece, Spain(regional and general) and Portugal could cause some volatility. We took profit on our Irish 5-year bonds this month as their spread reached

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