Unternehmensanleihen aus Schwellenländern blicken auf ein starkes Jahr 2024 zurück, in dem sie einen aggressiven Zinserhöhungszyklus in den USA und den Konjunkturabschwung in China überstanden haben. Und die Zukunft sieht vielversprechend aus
29.10.2024 | 08:01 Uhr
Why now: Expansion of emerging markets as an asset class
Emerging market credit has proven its resilience throughout 2024, navigating both macroeconomic headwinds and regional challenges. A key factor behind this performance has been the proactive policy responses from EM central banks, which, by acting ahead of their developed market counterparts have been able to stabilize growth and control inflation. The early rate cuts create a more favorable environment for corporate debt issuers, strengthening corporate financial positions and lowering default risks.
Over the past decade, emerging market central banks have enhanced their market credibility, allowing greater independence from the Fed in setting policy. This flexibility has enabled EM central banks to respond more effectively to their domestic economic conditions, helping them manage inflation and growth more successfully. As the Fed continues its rate cuts, a softer dollar could further benefit EM markets by appreciating local currencies and reducing debt costs for EM issuers.
EM credit has evolved into a distinct, stand-alone asset class. The JPM Corporate EMBI Broad Diversified index, one of the most widely used benchmarks, has grown to nearly USD 500 billion. However, the broader investment universe for external EM corporates exceeds USD 1.5 trillion, suggesting that strict index rules leave significant portions of the market untapped. This growth has sparked increasing institutional interest, boosting trading volumes, and deepening market liquidity. As a result, investors can find hidden value in segments of the EM credit market that lie beyond standard benchmarks.
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