Columbia Threadneedle: 2024 Global Real Estate Outlook

Columbia Threadneedle: 2024 Global Real Estate Outlook
Marktausblick

What's in store for real estate in 2024? Global megatrends and financial conditions will impact returns and sector allocation.

21.02.2024 | 06:40 Uhr

What does 2024 hold for real estate? Financial conditions and global megatrends (demographics, digitisation, deglobalisation and decarbonisation) will continue to influence return potential and sector allocation, affecting different regions in different ways. Both macro and micro lenses are necessary to take advantage of market dislocation and uncover those opportunities that could deliver strong returns.

As 2024 unfolds, while there are still several unanswered questions, there seems to be a more balanced investor sentiment emerging as some of the haze of the past twelve months begins to lift. The path ahead is not without its challenges, and it will change as the seasons do, but we do anticipate a more stable economic setting which will feed into a more manageable financial environment, helping to support investor decisions and spur transactional activity on.

Key takeaways

  • A more stable macroeconomic environment should help provide additional clarity to investment decisions. Financial conditions are anticipated to remain tight heading into 2024 but should begin to loosen in the second half of the year.
  • Global megatrends – demographics, digitisation, deglobalisation and decarbonisation – will continue to influence return potential and sector allocation, affecting different regions in different ways. Assets must retain functional relevance to justify a place in investment portfolios – themes we will return to throughout this year.
  • Demographic changes – an aging population, along with a younger population that will be more technologically enabled, more physically mobile and more sustainably motivated, will direct the future of the real estate across multiple sectors.
  • These structural tailwinds favour some sectors, and we favour allocations to logistics, select parts of the retail market and residential.
  • We anticipate further asset repricing in some regional and sectors will present at attractive buying opportunity for investors brave enough to transact in an environment which does not yet offer full transparency.
  • Targeted acquisitions are crucial, considering geography, quality and sector at both the macro and micro level to take advantage of the dislocation in the market. Decisions should be guided by long-term trends supporting overarching sector choices but pay attention to the differences and opportunities within, and between sectors, subsectors, cities and submarkets will be crucial too. Stock selection remains an important skill set to monetise structural trends.


Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.
For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.

The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) is a quarterly, unleveraged composite total return for private commercial real estate properties held for investment purposes only.

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. Real estate investing involves risks, including, without limitation: (i) actual operating results; (ii) interest rates; (iii) availability and costs of financing; (iv) economic and market conditions; (v) date of expected exit; (vi) increases in costs of materials or services beyond projections; (vii) force majeure events (e.g., terrorist attacks, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, war); (viii) supply/demand imbalances; (ix) currency fluctuations; (x) litigation and disputes relating to investments with joint venture partners or third parties; (xi) changes in zoning and other laws; (xii) inability to obtain necessary licenses and permits; (xiii) competition; and (xiv) changes in tax law and tax treatment and disallowance of tax positions.

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Along with Columbia Threadneedle’s in-house Research and Lionstone Research, a variety of sources have been used in the production of this document including, but not exclusively, Oxford Economics, Property Market Analysis, MSCI (www.msci.com/notice-and-disclaimer), Moody’s, CoStar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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