USA nach der Wahl - Obamas Spielraum im Angesicht der "fiscal cliff" und des Haushaltsdefizits begrenzt

“President Obama has emerged victorious from one of the most polarised presidential campaigns of recent years. But despite the electoral rhetoric, Obama knows that his scope for manoeuvre in the face of the “fiscal cliff” and the budget deficit is limited. He has little choice but to address these challenges (as would a President Romney) by raising taxes and cutting spending. While markets may be volatile post-election, we believe that over the longer term, US equities will gain support from the fundamental strengths of the economy. America is benefiting from a revival in the housing market and an industrial renaissance based on relatively cheap energy supplies. Moreover, capex could pick up sharply (from the very low current levels) once the policy outlook becomes clearer post the election. In addition, the stock market should benefit from the knowledge that monetary policy will now remain unchanged. Mitt Romney had pledged to remove Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve and was opposed to Quantitative Easing, which has proven supportive of both equities and the housing market.”