The European Commission bluntly rejected Italy’s draft budget plan and Moody’s downgraded Italy to Baa3 but with a stable outlook.
Confrontation between Italy and the European Commission stalls albeit at very elevated levels. After having made it clear that the Italian 2019 draft budget was not in line with EU rule, the European Commission is likely to reject it outright.
The European commission has already communicated that Italy’s fiscal plans involves a significant deviation from the EU fiscal rules. As it remains very doubtful that the Italian government backtracks.
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Für Anleger gibt es in dem eskalierenden Handelskrieg wenig zu gewinnen, meint Robeco-Chefökonom Léon Cornelissen.
The sell-off in BTPs has continued this week as the Lega - 5 Star coalition did not step back from its 2.4% deficit for the 2019 draft budget.
On Thursday evening the 27th the Italian government presented its 2019 draft budget. Markets participants had been anxiously waiting for the outcome of the 5SM – Lega coalition’s first budget. In a surprise move the government announced to increase its fiscal deficit target to 2.4% for 2019 and the following years.
Disagreements among Italian officials regarding the 2019 fiscal deficit have continued to trigger headlines this week. Surprisingly the market did not react to the proposal by Di Maio on Wednesday to target a deficit of 2.5% of GDP.
Italian bond have continued to rally sharply this week, while other peripheral spreads have tightened modestly.
Anleger sollten beim Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis auf die Gewinne und nicht nur auf die Kurse achten, empfiehlt Jeroen Blokland von Robeco.