Der Investmentmanager Robeco beurteilt die heutige Entscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) insgesamt als positive Überraschung für die Märkte.
Das Asset-Allokation-Team von Robeco erwartet, dass die Aktienmarkt-Rallye des letzten Jahres eine neue, volatilere Phase erreicht. Daher senken die Robeco-Experten ihre Positionierung bei Aktien von „übergewichtet“ auf „neutral“.
After several comments from ECB policy makers including President Draghi last week, the announcement of a government-bond buying program seems a done deal at the meeting on January 22.
Yields on Greek 3-year bonds briefly rose to 15% as investors fear another debt restructuring. Syriza leader Tsipras says his party is pushing for change, but not for exiting the euro.
Risk is taken off the table as the new year ushers in volatility. Many factors cause slump, from Grexit threat to oil price collapse. Macroeconomic outlook: QE likely in the Eurozone, ‘Grexit‘ unlikely. Asset allocation: Overweight in equities is reduced to neutral.
In the Euro area growth disappointed and inflation fell. The ECB responded by cutting rates, pushing the deposit rate into negative territory, offering cheap 4-year loans to banks and buying covered bonds and ABS.
Kommer van Trigts gibt einen Ausblick für die Rentenmärkte 2015
Greek Prime Minister Samaras has brought forward the Presidential elections. The first round will take place on December 17. If no candidate gathers the required majority by the final round on December 29, parliament will be dissolved and general elections will take place late January.
ECB President Draghi did not announce any new measures after Thursday’s meeting. However, the ECB will reassess ‘early next year’ whether they need to alter the size, pace and composition of their measures. This is code language for adding government bonds to their buying programs.
In seinem internationalen Aktienfonds Robeco BP Global Premium Equities hat Fondsmanager Chris Hart die USA so hoch gewichtet wie noch nie, seit er den Fonds vor sechseinhalb Jahren übernommen hat. Dafür hat er gute Gründe.