BNP IP: Will the monkey smile on EM in 2016?

• The IMF projects real and nominal GDP growth to pick up faster in emerging economies than in developed ones from late 2016 onwards.
• A moderate growth and subdued inflation in developed markets give substance to the view that monetary policies in developed economies will remain very accommodating.
• Commodity prices in general, and particularly those of crude oil, may well have seen their lows.
• The idea that China could experience a hard landing this year or next is not in our view a worry for financial markets any more, at least not for the foreseeable future.
• There seem to be tentative signs of emerging market earnings growth momentum turning for the better and moving more in line with that in developed markets.

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