BNP: Schwellenländerwährungen unter Druck
Das Tapering der US-Notenbank Fed und ein möglicher Anstieg der Leitzinsen belasten die Währungen. Der chinesische Renminbi hat 2014 bisher zwei Prozent verloren.28.04.2014 | 10:00 Uhr
Emerging markets U.S. monetary tapering and worries about an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve continue to be top concerns for Asian investors. There were an interest rate scare earlier this year that interest rates may rise sooner rather than later when new Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen last month, in her first press conference, rattled markets by making comments suggesting that an interest rate hike might come in as soon as six months. She subsequently assured market watchers that the Fed intends to keep interest rates low, pointing to a still-weak U.S. job market.
So far, concerns haven’t caused a sell-off in Asian equities but tapering and a rate hike spell weakness for emerging market currencies. After years of steady appreciation, China’s renminbi is now down about 2% year to date. Currency depreciation is good for exports but also increases costs. These are valid concerns but we believe Asia will hold up well given its previous experience with currency crises. Two countries in particular, Indonesia and India, have an advantage, in our opinion.
A Fed interest rate hike not only but also risks devaluation in the property sector. Cities with high property prices such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Mumbai, Shanghai and Beijing are vulnerable to a property price correction, which would affect wealth and consumption. China is struggling to reform its property sector, but it remains to be seen how reform progresses. Thus far, we are seeing some moderate changes but we believe policies need to be changed more drastically to be effective.
Regional Standouts Indonesia and India
No stranger to currency crises, Indonesia and India have already gone through currency depreciation pains last year in mini crises. Both countries were seeing their current account deficits widening and investors pulled funds from the bond and equities markets. But Indonesia and India raised interest rates and are now better positioned and a lot healthier than other emerging markets. The Jakarta stock market has been a top performer this year and Indonesia’s rupiah is up about 7%. Similarly, India’s rupee has been gaining strength, now nearing an 8-month high, after dropping sharply last year, causing high inflation. India’s current account fell to just 1% of GDP in the fourth quarter 2013. Investors have been returning to Indian equities, buoyed by optimism that of a closely-followed general election could usher business-friendly Narendra Modi into office.