BNPP AM: MAQS Asset Allocation Monthly - August 2019
The latest issue of the Asset Allocation Monthly from BNP Paribas Asset Management’s Multi Asset, Quantitative & Solutions (‘MAQS’) investment group is now available.01.08.2019 | 11:20 Uhr
Summary
‘Fragile goldilocks’ still in place
- The three key ‘goldilocks’ pillars (macro data, central banks, and trade war dynamics) remain supportive
- Markets have already largely priced in this sweet spot
- We continue to monitor the risk scenarios around our base case as we still see this as a ‘fragile goldilocks’
Central bank easing & market impact
- The ECB strongly hinted at upcoming stimulus, leaving the door open for rate cuts, rate tiering and QE
- The Fed cut rates by 25bps and announced the end to its balance sheet drawdown, which we see as an ‘insurance cut’
- Easing also continues in China
- Cuts should support risk assets, depress real rates and revive inflation breakeven rates, although tactical risk/reward seems unattractive
Earnings season
- With goldilocks increasingly priced in, we are monitoring fundamental developments closely
- The current earnings season is reasonably solid, especially against a bearish consensus
Chinese easing
- We are monitoring the impact of China’s easing on the domestic economy and key trading partners
- Given the upturn in measures like the credit impulse, we are hopeful for some stabilisation in the macroeconomic backdrop in H2.
Den gesamten Report können Sie sich hier im PDF-Format downloaden.