Globale Aktienmärkte profitieren von guten Unternehmenszahlen

“Since the middle of March the global equity markets have developed macro nerves again. Spain’s fiscal woes, worse than expected US economic data and a Q1 GDP figure growth of 8.1% from China all added to the sense of unease. But the mood in markets has become bleak, very quickly as memories of the Q1 rally have faded. Is there a way back?
 
“We believe that there is and remain constructive on returns in global equity markets. Firstly from a technical perspective markets appear to be oversold. Various signals from AAII bull bear investor sentiment readings to surveys of institutional cash levels suggest that we are nearing the end of this sell off.  Secondly, the relative value of equities to bonds is extreme – witness the growing popularity of income funds. Thirdly, on the macro front while US economic data is no longer surprising positively we have a steady economic recovery in place with the need to tighten fiscally delayed till post-election. In China 8.1% may be slower but policy is being eased and we believe that the authorities remain in control of the situation. Finally, companies continue to thrive in this environment. This week we have started the Q1 reporting season and very early indications suggest that all is well in the corporate world and we can see more cash flows being returned to shareholders in the form of increased dividends and share buy backs.
 
“So what of Spain? New capital will need to be raised but the LTRO has reduced the funding risk and the threat of systemic issues. We have moved on from last autumn – the world is far from perfect, but the infections are being isolated. Look at the year to date returns in European markets, Spain is down -16% but Germany is up 15% and Italy is the only other market except for Spain which is in negative territory.”