Morgan Stanley IM: 2H 2024 – Chasing the White Rabbit, but Where Will it Lead Investors?
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.01.07.2024 | 06:46 Uhr
- The white rabbit is a clear reference to Alice in Wonderland, symbolizing stresses and tensions, leading its willing follower into a strange world. The difference is that we in the market have no choice.
- In the context of the market, the metaphorical white rabbit may be leading investors into an ambiguous world, more so than an uncertain one.
- The big difference is that the market can calculate risks associated with uncertainty, but cannot with ambiguity.
- This presents a challenge in 2H 2024 as we enter a world with political drivers of market movements, a key source of ambiguity. This seems to have started with election results in Mexico, India, the EU and France.
- More to come with respect to the U.S. presidential election, but the projections for trade and foreign policy, tariffs and fiscal policy/2025 tax policy all represent ambiguity.
- And let’s not forget monetary policy, inflation, employment situation and other fundamental factors, all representing uncertainty.
- What can investors do about this in 2H 2024? We discuss in this audiocast.