Morgan Stanley IM: A Bear Market Rally or the Start of Something Bigger?
Jim Caron, Senior Advisor for the Fixed Income Team, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.15.11.2022 | 07:51 Uhr
- Inflation is down, but the jobs data is still strong.
- In fact, the consensus view is that inflation has peaked and will decline in 2023.
- However, there are almost two jobs open for every unemployed person, so wage inflation is neither dead nor dying.
- All in all, a 50 basis point hike by the Fed is more likely in December, 75 now less probable.
- The market is currently pricing in a terminal policy rate of 5.00%.