Morgan Stanley IM: The BEAT for August – Key Themes and Top Ideas
Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers06.08.2024 | 06:25 Uhr
- We cannot stress enough the importance of the jobs data, where a
softening, especially in wages, will give the Fed confidence that
inflation is anchored and triggers Powell to cut rates
- We created a FEAR Framework (Fed, Employment, Asset prices, Rates)
to understand and measure the interplay of these key variables
- Currently we are seeing a friendly dynamic in which inflation is
falling, the Fed is expected to ease, bond yields have fallen and labor
markets are cooling, but not collapsing to point where it destroys
consumer demand
- This balance is friend to both bond and equity assets. . .but for how long, and is it sustainable?
- We answer that through our asset allocation and portfolio construction described in The BEAT for August.