NN Investment Partners: Inflation inflection - Managing the EM deleveraging process
Actually, it is not only investors that are still worried over the fragility of the global outlook. A key reason for Mario Draghi to push the ECB into further easing is clearly the (too) slow pace of reflation in the Eurozone economy.04.12.2015 | 07:01 Uhr
Economic Outlook: How to manage the EM deleveraging process
In emerging markets, the credit cycle has reached its peak. The big question is at what pace EM space will attempt to "delever" in the coming years. In general, deleveraging will weigh on growth because the creditors are unlikely to immediately and fully fill the spending gap left by the debtors once the latter attempt to improve their balance sheets.
Asset Allocation: We take some risk off the table as we look how policy divergence will unfold
The final month of the year will be characterised by a burst of policy action by the ECB and Fed. Although core inflation has been rising this year, the ECB wants to avoid the risk of falling behind the curve and prevent a further erosion of inflation expectations.
Fixed Income: Fiscal pressure in EM space continues to increase
One of the main reasons why EM sovereign hard-currency debt has been able to prevent a sharp correction in the current EM growth crisis is the manageable level of public debt and reasonable fiscal management. But while the level of public indebtedness remains a reason not to panic, recent fiscal dynamics are a reason to be vigilant.
Equity Strategy: Expectations are high for monetary policy decisions but not for the OPEC meeting
December will be one of this year’s most important months, as we are to see the announcement of the first rate hike in the US in more than nine years. At the same time, the ECB is pondering a further easing of its monetary policy through an additional rate cut, more bond buying and/or an extension of the current QE program.