NN IP: Angst als Risiko

Economic Outlook
Developed market strength is an important anchor for the global economy

There is ample reason to hold on to our base case of robust DM domestic demand which does not seem to have been dented a lot by the EM headwinds in August. The fact that the latter have abated somewhat only increases our confidence. Read more

Asset Allocation
Consequences of Paris attacks are expected to be limited

We expect the economic consequences of the Paris attacks to be limited, but recognize that they could be more long lasting, especially if it turns out that the attacks are the start of a sustained terrorist campaign. We did not change our tactical asset allocation and maintain a balanced view. Read more

Fixed Income
Central Banks are driving government bond markets

These are again volatile times for the core government bond markets. In September the focus was on global monetary policy support, which generally contributed to falling government bond yields. This changed in October, when the market started to focus again on a possible first Fed rate hike before the end of the year.  Read more

Equity Strategy 
US earnings are in more advanced stage of the cycle

One of the main themes for 2016 is divergence. The US is further ahead in the business cycle than the Eurozone or Japan. This is visible in the expected trend in earnings but also in the trends we observe in financial leverage and corporate spending. Read more