NN IP: Balancing on the fence
The world is uncertain. Economic growth is modest, inflation is low and interest rates are hardly visible. Also, politics are more polarised, incomes more unequal and globalization more contested than at any time in the last three decades. All this makes for great newspaper headlines and alarming statements from highly confident economists, politicians, columnists and other opinion makers.21.04.2016 | 16:06 Uhr
Economic Outlook: Thoughts on the risk rally and EM capital flows
To get a bit more feel for the determinants of the current volatile nominal growth environment, we identified four weak links earlier this year. We will give an update on these in the coming weeks. Today we will elaborate on the rebalancing of the Chinese economy and the role of capital flows to and from emerging markets. Read more...
Asset Allocation: Returns in uncertainty
Investing is all about harvesting returns from uncertainty. Therefore it is crucial to ensure investment decisions are not clouded by exaggerated claims about the unusual level of uncertainty and the long-term macro and political factors that explain it all. Uncertainty is there, has been there and will always be there. Read more...
Fixed Income: Environment for EMD remains good
EM assets should continue to benefit in the current weak dollar environment, which is primarily the result of the market perception of a more dovish Fed. But increasing evidence of a growth pick-up in China has also played a role by helping EM currencies to rebound and by supporting the yen and the euro as well. Read more...
Equity Strategy: Tone of equity markets appears to be improving
There is a more positive tone in equity markets lately. In euro terms the market has almost erased its year-to-date losses. Two reasons that stand out are the evolution of cyclical commodity prices and the improvement in the Chinese data. A third factor that has also played a role is US central bank policy. Read more...