NN IP: Erwarte immer das Unerwartete
Gerade als es so schien, dass sich die Märkte nach einem volatilen Sommer beruhigen würden, wurde der Renminbi zum ersten Mal nach mehr als zwei Jahrzehnten abgewertet. Wir erwarten, dass sie die Abwertung fortsetzt, während sich das Risiko von Kapitalabflüssen aus China beschleunigt.13.08.2015 | 15:47 Uhr
Economic Outlook
The absence of US wage growth need not be an impediment to Fed hikes:
While there are no signs yet of accelerating wages, the US payroll report contained nothing to change the view that the labour market remains on a tightening course.
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Asset Allocation
China’s devaluation triggers another bout of risk-averse investor behaviour:
Mr. Market’s mood swings are just as often determined by the inner workings of markets themselves as they are by outside events like unexpected policy maker moves.
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Fixed Income
Renminbi devaluation increases pressure on EM currencies:
The appreciation of the Chinese renminbi against the depreciation of other EM currencies since 2011 had become unsustainable. We expect more depreciation while the risk of accelerating capital outflows from China is increasing.
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Equity Strategy
Global equity markets dented by CNY devaluation:
The Chinese currency devaluation opens the door for more CNY weakness. This could harm European, US and Japanese companies. Industrial companies and car and luxury goods producers are most at risk.