NN IP: Markets due for reality check; strong start for US earnings
NN IP’s Chief Strategist Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen believes that following closely what happens to the real economy provides better guidance than tracking all the tweet-storms or live-broadcasts of tumultuous press conferences.19.01.2017 | 16:06 Uhr
Asset Allocation
Reality Check
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Economic Outlook
Some macro issues to keep you awake at night (Part II)
Last week, we listed four issues that we believe will prove to be relevant for the economy and markets this year. This week, we list two other items: Japanese reflation and productivity growth.
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Equity Strategy
Markets balanced between positive data and political uncertainty
Positive macro and earnings data on the one hand and political uncertainty on the other are keeping the market in balance. The US earnings season started well, with strong bank earnings. FY 2017 bottom-up estimates look realistic.
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Fixed Income
Risks centred on rotation into equities, out of emerging markets
Central bank support is still present, but to a lesser degree. We have upgraded emerging market sovereign debt in hard currencies to neutral but maintain our underweight in the EM block as a whole.
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