NN IP: Reflation trade continues; commodities, energy stand to benefit

Asset Allocation

The reflation trade continues
It remains to be seen whether the outcome of the Italian referendum will also push risky assets higher. Read more


Economic Outlook

Can globalisation be a tide that lifts all boats?
Free trade and free capital mobility have brought many benefits to the world in the past decades. It is however also clear that not everyone has benefited equally. To halt the rise of populists wanting to engage in protectionism and isolationism, governments should start to act quickly and create a tide that lifts all boats, argues Senior Economist Willem Verhagen. Read more

Equity Strategy

Emerging Markets growth recovery is likely to be over
For EM equities to resume their outperformance trend, a marked improvement in earnings expectations is required. It is difficult to see this happening as long as the protectionism risk remains and investors believe that Trump has a good chance of reflating the US economy. Read more

Fixed Income

Reflation trade favours high yield over investment grade
We prefer high yield over investment grade. We increased the overweight US HY after the presidential election and moved USD IG to small underweight.  In contrast, we are currently underweight in all EM categories, which appear to be in the line of fire.  Read more