NN IP: Stranger Things
Somewhat counterintuitive, cyclical sectors started to outperform after the Brexit vote, an event which in the preceding period was defined as a killer for confidence and growth. Two months after the vote it appears that the impact has so far been limited.25.08.2016 | 16:25 Uhr
Economic Outlook: The case for policy coordination
In a world of persistently disappointing growth rates with little evidence of the GDP level returning to a stable trend it is pretty useless to continue to fight the last (anti-inflation) war. The chances of victory will be increased by more explicit coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. Read more...
Asset Allocation: Signs of cyclical improvement
Brexit news and its potential shock to the system got most attention of investors over the summer. However, it might well be that other parts of the system were also moving and gradually markets have come to realise that the underlying cyclical story is something worthwhile paying attention to. Read more...
Fixed Income: Closing the overweight in UK Gilts
The combination of a sharp decline in Gilt yields with lack of visibility of immediate economic developments is for us reason to close the overweight in 10-year Gilts, for now. The economic data available now, do not seem to justify another easing move by the BoE already in September. Read more...
Equity Strategy: Something is bubbling below the surface
Markets have been calm over the past weeks, but below the surface an interesting change in underlying investment themes is visible. Since the summer, the focus has shifted towards cyclical sectors, again. We assess how sustainable this trend may be this time. Read more...