NN IP: US-Zinsschritt immer wahrscheinlicher

Economic Outlook
More certainty about Fed hike but less about BoJ easing

The US payroll report for October came in convincingly strong, cementing the case for a December rate hike. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, surprised many observers by not stepping up the pace of easing last month.  Read more

Asset Allocation
Investor sentiment and positioning are key factors in assessing the potential for volatility caused by a Fed rate hike

The latest Fed communication and the strong payroll report of last week showed not only a strong intention of policy makers to act, but also provided the data that make it close to impossible for them not to follow through with it this time. Read more

Fixed Income
Fiscal discipline is lacking in a number of emerging markets

In most emerging markets, the fiscal deficit has widened in the past few years. The decline in commodity prices and the rise in unemployment are two main causes. However, not all countries are unwilling or unable to implement the necessary tightening measures.  Read more

Equity Strategy 
Preference for Eurozone and Japan once more underscored

Divergence in monetary policy and in the earnings profile will remain important drivers of relative equity market performance. As the US is in a much more advanced phase on both parameters, the prospects of the Eurozone and Japan look more promising. Read more