NN IP: Voting for Change
When we discussed the Italian referendum last week, our main conclusion was that there is no such thing as a straight line from a No vote to a referendum on euro membership. The muted market response to the outcome seemed to reflect this.09.12.2016 | 10:09 Uhr
Asset Allocation: Voting for Change
The remarkable market response to political shocks shows that simple explanations are hard to find in a complex world. Rising populism is an important, but far from the only factor behind shifting voter preferences and strange markets might be more realistic than they look at first sight. Read more...
Economic Outlook: Reflections on European political risk
The Italian referendum result once again showed that political risk is rising in Europe. Differences in voter preferences and a lack of solidarity between the north and the south clear the way for populists to rise to power. The French elections will likely be the most closely watched event in 2017. Read more...
Equity Strategy: Reflation and regional performance
The incoming government’s focus on infrastructure spending, tax reduction and deregulation is a clear positive for US companies. For non-US companies the impact will be less strong, especially if Trump becomes serious about his protectionist agenda. Read more...
Fixed Income: OPEC deal supportive for spread products
This year’s negative correlation between spread levels and oil prices has been remarkably strong across the board. The deal announced at the OPEC meeting on 30 November is expected to remain a support for spread products going forward. Read more...