NNIP: Back to Reality

Economic Outlook: Case still strong for more ECB easing 

The Eurozone shows continuing resiliency in terms of economic momentum, but what matters for the inflation outlook is the level of the output gap as well as the stability of inflation expectations. In this environment there is a clear need for easier monetary policy in view of the ECB’s price stability mandate. Read more...

Asset Allocation: Risk premiums have increased during the turmoil that has dominated markets since the start of the year

Since the start of the year markets have been in a state of turmoil and we have witnessed a substantial increase in risk premiums across the board. The big exception to this rule is the term premium on the global benchmark safe and liquid asset, US Treasuries, which on balance has drifted lower since August last year. Read more...

Fixed Income: Fiscal slippage in EM space is increasing in an environment of capital outflows

An assessment of what is happening in the emerging world at the fiscal and monetary levels shows that pressure has been increasing in recent months. The big picture is unlikely to improve in the short term. Read more...

Equity Strategy: Barring a recession, market correction looks exaggerated

A look at valuations, sentiment indicators and investment flows raises the question of whether investors are not overreacting to the latest drop in the price of crude oil and increasing signs of slowing growth in China.  Volatility may stay high for the foreseeable future, but this is as much a source of opportunity as of risk. Read more...