NNIP: Märkte in ruhigeren Gewässern
Nachdem sich die Risiken im Zusammenhang mit einem möglichen Grexit und dem Verlust an den chinesischen Aktienmärkten verringert haben, haben wir beschlossen das Risiko in unserer taktischen Allokation zu vergrößern.30.07.2015 | 15:31 Uhr
Economic Outlook
US economy should remain resilient.
Underlying data point to strength in the US economy. The consumer and housing should act as important drivers for a growth acceleration in the second half of this year. In the emerging world, market pressure is increasing.
Asset Allocation
Markets are back in calmer waters.
As Grexit and Chinese equity market risks have – at least for now – diminished, we decided to add some risk in our tactical asset allocation. We moved equities and real estate back to overweight.
Fixed Income
US curve will probably flatten in second half of the year, while the euro curve steepens.
The anticipated start of the Fed’s interest rate normalization will probably have a bigger impact on the 2-year yield than on the 10-year yield. This should result in a flattening of the US yield curve.
Equity Strategy
Second-quarter earnings season has a good start in US.
Estimates of US earnings are again increasing, an encouraging sign that may mean Q2 represents the trough in the current cycle.