Pictet: Ausverkauf in China ist Korrektur, kein Crash
"Wir glauben, dass die Entwicklungen in China eine starke Korrektur darstellen und nicht den Start einen langfristigen Bärenmarktes", sagt Christophe Donay, chief strategist bei Pictet Wealth Management.25.08.2015 | 16:44 Uhr
A renewed sell-off on Chinese stock markets has spread across Asia and is now hitting markets globally. We could be on the brink of a financial and economic crash in China that would derail the global economic recovery. However, we view developments on Chinese markets as a sharp correction rather than the start of a long-term bear market, and think that the Chinese authorities will succeed in stabilising the economy.
China’s slowdown creates concerns
Underlying the current market turmoil are concerns about China’s economic slowdown. The country has been a major driver of global growth since the beginning of the 1990s. However, after two-and-a-half decades of astonishing real GDP growth—between 9% and 12% annually—China has entered a period of adjustment. As its economy becomes more mature, growth should stabilise at around 5% within 4-5 years.
The considerable challenge for the Chinese authorities is to manage this transition without a recession or a financial shock. As the current turmoil shows, this is proving very difficult. In a pessimistic scenario, if problems on China’s financial markets and real economy deepen, and the authorities fail to contain the situation, a full-blown financial and economic crash in China could ensue. This is currently the biggest risk for the global economy and financial markets.
However, we are more optimistic. The Chinese authorities retain considerable firepower to stabilise the economy. They could further loosen monetary policy, and also deploy fiscal stimulus.