Pictet: Krim-Krise könnte Auslöser für Marktkorrektur sein
Nach Ansicht von Luca Paolini, Chef-Stratege bei Pictet Asset Management, hat sich die Krise in der Ukraine der kurzfristige Ausblick für Aktien verschlechtert.05.03.2014 | 09:20 Uhr
“It’s time to dial back equities after the rebound” says Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management.
"February’s strong equity rally has given us the opportunity to tactically lock in gains and shift our position to neutral. We expect a number of short term bearish developments to unfold, but believe the medium term outlook for equity markets remains encouraging.
The near-term outlook for stocks has deteriorated. Economic activity is slowing worldwide, with the US a prominent weak spot. The escalating crisis in Ukraine is another potential source of risk.
We are planning to visit Russia next week in order to assess the economic and political impact of the events unfolding in the region. That will give us an opportunity to test the validity of our base case scenario: Russia’s intervention confined to the Crimean peninsula and the IMF spearheading efforts to avert a financial crisis in Ukraine.
Should the situation deteriorate and result in heightened tensions between Russia and the European Union, a major casualty could be Europe’s economic recovery, which is vulnerable given that the region imports roughly 25 per cent of its gas from Russia, half of which flows through Ukraine. Under this scenario, the EUR would likely weaken sharply against the USD.
More broadly, with the recent rally in global stocks showing signs of fatigue, the Ukraine crisis could prove the trigger for a market correction."