Robeco: Es ist Zeit, Aktien neutral zu gewichten
Der aktuelle Bullenmarkt bei Aktien könnte in den nächsten Monaten vorübergehend enden, meint Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer Robeco Investment Solutions.25.06.2015 | 11:16 Uhr
Lukas Daalder believes that the current bull run may come to an temporary end in the coming months – with values possibly falling by 10% in a long-awaited ‘correction’ – unless the macroeconomic data can justify ever-higher values.
Subsequently, his Robeco Asset Allocation team has cut exposure to global equities from a long-standing overweight position to neutral as a precaution against potentially lower prices. The multi-asset portfolio team has also raised its overweight to the US dollar, believing it will rise further in value once the Federal Reserve does raise rates.
“Two considerations made us take the decision to lower our exposure to equities,” says Daalder, Chief Investment Officer of Robeco Investment Solutions. “The first can be summarized by the simple premise that one should buy low and sell high.”
“Worldwide stocks have yielded a 7% return in local currencies so far this year (16% in euros), which is more or less the return you could expect in an average year, and even more than we had bargained for at the end of last year. As this gain is not matched by earnings, stocks have become more expensive in the process. The risk/reward outlook for equities has deteriorated, which means that reducing risk is the logical move to make.”
“Second, we raised the question as to what do we think is the more likely outcome from this point forward: a 10% further rise, or a (temporary) 10% correction? Although we can certainly not exclude the first option, it is clear that we feel that the odds for the second option have risen in recent months. Based on that premise, we do not think an overweight position is still warranted, which is why we move back to neutral.”
Sitting duck syndrome
Daalder says the roots of the decision go back to last September, when the high exposure to equities made him feel like a “sitting duck” during particularly turbulent market periods. Although the portfolio was able to ride out the storms and make good returns for investors, it was a nervous experience. “For the better part of two years, we had an unchanged overweight position in equities, which by the end of 2014 had reached a maximum long position. This position served us well as stocks moved upwards,” he says.